We propose alternative methods to project pension rights and implement them in Chile and Uruguay and partially in Argentina. We use incomplete work histories databases from the social security administrations to project entire lifetime work histories. We first fit linear probability and duration models of the contribution status and dynamic linear models of the income level. We then run Monte...
El presente documento constituye el informe final elaborado por Rodrigo Cerda y Fernando Coloma, que han desarrollado el estudio actuarial correspondiente al año 2008.
Este documento tiene por objeto presentar la metodología utilizada en la elección de benchmarks exógenos para los fondos del Seguro de Cesantía, reconociendo sus distintos objetivos. La cartera referencial del Fondo de Cuentas Individuales de Cesantía (CIC) no considera inversión en renta variable con el objeto de minimizar la volatilidad de las cuentas individuales, en cambio, la cartera...
Este artículo presenta los principales riesgos que se enfrentan en un sistema de capitalización individual y describe la regulación que en el caso de Chile permite mitigarlos. Uno de los principales riesgos que se enfrentan se refiere al de inversión de los fondos, respecto del cual se analiza el sustento que puede tener una estrategia de inversión de ciclo de vida. Al evaluar estas estrategias se...
As part of the pension reform recently approved in Chile, the government introduced a centralized auction mechanism to provide the Disability and Survivors (D&S) Insurance that covers recent contributors among the more than 8 million participants in the mandatory private pension system. This paper is intended as a case study presenting the main distortions found in the decentralized operation of...
This paper studies the relation between institutional investors and capital market development by analyzing unique data on monthly asset-level portfolio allocations of Chilean pension funds between 1995 and 2005. The results depict pension funds as large and important institutional investors that tend to hold a large amount of bank deposits, government paper, and short-term assets; buy and hold...
Regulation in countries that have adopted defined contribution (DC) pension systems based on savings accounts typically includes minimum return guarantees (MRG) provisions to limit the risk of financial downturns. This paper studies the consequences of this regulation over asset allocation within a standard model of dynamic portfolio selection, where managers act strategically while making their...
This study examines the determinants of job-finding rates of unemployment benefit recipients under the Chilean program. This is a unique, innovative program that combines social insurance through a solidarity fund (SF) with self-insurance in the form of unemployment insurance savings accounts (UISAs) - so as to mitigate the moral hazard problem of traditional unemployment insurance programs. Our...
Este artículo presenta los resultados de simulaciones acerca de la evolución esperada de los Fondos de Cesantía ante los cambios introducidos por la reforma al Seguro de Cesantía, que entró en vigencia en mayo de 2009. Tratándose de la primera gran reforma al Sistema, y tratándose en algunos casos de cambios sutiles a sus parámetros, se desarrolló un modelo de proyección que comparte las...
Emerging economies have tried to promote long-term debt because it reduces maturity mismatches and the probability of crises. This paper uses unique evidence from the leading case of Chile to study to what extent domestic institutional investors hold longterm instruments. We compare monthly asset-level portfolios of Chilean institutional investors (mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance...
